Is the 'surge' setting up a huge explosion in Iraq?

The 'surge' is going to blow up in our faces. The only question is, is Bush doing this deliberately so he can say 'I told you so' when Iraq explodes when we leave, or is this just another status quo insanely incompetent decision in a long line of insanely incompetent decisions? As George is fond of pointing out, history will be his judge. Personally, I think he needs to be in front of a real judge.